Download AIDS Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach (Monographs in by Ron Brookmeyer (Author), Mitchell H. Gail (Author) PDF

By Ron Brookmeyer (Author), Mitchell H. Gail (Author)

AIDS has seemed in additional than a hundred thirty nations, and over 100,000 situations of AIDS were pronounced within the U.S. on my own. an increasing number of, the general public should be counting on statisticians to supply solutions concerning the destiny process this epidemic. This complete paintings confronts the issues which are exact to AIDS learn and unites them below a unmarried conceptual framework. It specializes in tools for the layout and research of epidemiologic reports, the typical historical past of AIDS and the transmission of HIV, equipment for monitoring and projecting the process the epidemic, and statistical matters in healing trials. a few of the tools of tracking and forecasting this ailment obtain accomplished therapy. those equipment contain back-calculation, which the authors built; interpretation of survey information on HIV occurrence; mathematical versions for HIV transmission; and ways that mix types of epidemiological facts. a lot of this fabric -- similar to a dialogue of tools for assessing defense of the blood provide, an overview of survey ways, and strategies to venture pediatric AIDS occurrence -- isn't to be had in the other paintings.

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Extra info for AIDS Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach (Monographs in Epidemiology and Biostatistics ; V. 22)

Sample text

0, is related to infectivity by the equation, B0 = log{ —log(l — y)}.

The Global Programme on AIDS of WHO has supported efforts to estimate HIV prevalence and to make projections (Chin, Sato, and Mann, 1990). 5 million were infected in Pattern II countries, and 100,000 were infected in Pattern III countries. 1 million infected people was projected to increase to three or four times that number by the year 2000. In the United States, 284,840 AIDS cases had been reported to the CDC by March 31, 1993, including 21,582 cases reported since January 1, 1993 under a broadened surveillance definition that includes depression of CD4+ T cell levels to below 200 cells/u1 (CDC, 1992b).

AIDS case reporting is considerably more complete in industrialized countries than in developing countries. Furthermore, industrialized countries often have the capability to diagnose cases retrospectively, which continually adds to their AIDS case totals. The WHO has identified three global patterns of the epidemic (Chin and Mann, 1989). Pattern I refers to areas where HIV began to spread in the late 1970s principally among homosexual and bisexual men and intravenous drug users. North American, Western Europe, and parts of Latin America have been described as Pattern I.

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